[T]he Iowa caucuses do a couple of things that the know-it-alls forget: First, it’s not that the caucuses always pick the winner. It’s that the caucuses eliminate some of the candidates that the media had picked to be the winners. It’s not as much about winning them as it is about not LOSING.

In 2008, my victory there was the undoing of Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and Fred Thompson. In 2012, when Rick Santorum had a surprise victory, it was the beginning of the end for Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, and Michele Bachmann. In 2016, it was the night that put Ted Cruz and Donald Trump in virtually a two-man race and forecast the demise of Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Rand Paul, and me.

So yes, it will be important to see who comes out of Iowa with momentum, but the real story will be who crashes against the rocks and will never seriously sail again. Perhaps some will limp forward to New Hampshire or South Carolina, but the race will become populated with fewer candidates soon after Iowa.

[Huckabee’s right generally, but not on that last point in this cycle. Ramaswamy will disappear, but that’s the only candidate who will after tonight no matter who wins. Haley and DeSantis are the only other candidates realistically in the running, and they’ll go on to New Hampshire and South Carolina, at least. I’d guess they’ll be around through Super Tuesday. Anyway, Huckabee’s essay is still worth reading, especially for his Chuck Norris anecdote/joke. Huckabee was one of the most fun interviews I ever did with a serious candidate, and his humor remains evident to this day. — Ed]