The Supreme Court wants to put an end to this, now. The last thing the justices (or most Americans, I’d assume) want over the next few months is a piecemeal flow of other disputes arising in dozens of states that disqualify (or refuse to disqualify) Trump from the 2024 ballot. The Court has every incentive to use a silver bullet here. One shot and we’re done.

Agreed? If so, then we have our answer about who will win. … If the Court wants to issue one definitive ruling that will resolve all 14th Amendment challenges nationwide, it has two pathways — and both of them result in Trump victories. …

If I had to guess — and we are all guessing, perhaps cut with some experience and intuition — I’d go with the former one-shot approach (though the Court could do both). The Court can base its ruling on textualist, plain-language principles: When the Constitution says “Congress” decides, it means “Congress” and not “Congress — but also the states, if they feel like it.” It’s legalistic, it’s above the fray, it’s clean, and it’s definitive.

[I agree, although Honig’s incorrect on his assertion that Congress has not acted under Section 5 to implement Section 3. Congress has passed and modified a statute over the last century-plus that makes insurrection a federal crime. Trump has not been charged with that crime, let alone convicted of it, so there is no disqualification to apply in regard to Section 3. That would not just make clear what a DQ process would look like, it would require full due process to apply it. That’s the cleanest outcome for SCOTUS, and I predict that’s exactly how they’ll rule. — Ed]