What should alarm Democrats is that Carter, like President Biden now, was extremely unpopular, while Reagan, like Donald Trump, was considered almost unelectable. Similarly, inflation was a thorn in Carter’s side, much as it has dogged Biden since the first year of his term. Not for nothing, 2022’s inflationary surge hit the highest levels since … Jimmy Carter was in office.

On foreign policy, we were facing a number of challenges then, as we are now. In 1980, the U.S. was still dealing with the Iranian hostage crisis, not entirely dissimilar from the hostage crisis in Gaza and our issues in the Middle East.

In the 1980 election, incumbent Jimmy Carter had proven unable to either get the hostages out or overcome the perception of overarching weakness on foreign policy. And indeed, it is that same perceived weakness on foreign policy that could ultimately make the difference in 2024 for Joe Biden.

[I agree about Biden and Carter, but not about Trump Reagan. No one thought Reagan was “unelectable” in 1980; he’d won two terms as governor in California and nearly defeated Gerald Ford for the nomination in 1976. People thought Reagan was too radical, to be sure, but he clearly wasn’t “unelectable.” Second and more importantly, Reagan was well-liked even by his opponents. Trump is almost universally despised by everyone except his base of supporters. The difference is what created the “Reagan Democrats” crossovers in 1980 and 1984, and is also why 2024 won’t be 1980. It still *could* be 2016, but that’s it. — Ed]