Now, a CNN focus group is not indicative of how the caucuses will go. (Frankly, I’m never convinced polling is indicative of how a caucus will go, either; caucuses are weird and they’re not like primaries; even the famed Ann Selzer got her 2016 Iowa poll wrong).

But if we extrapolate these answers to potential statewide results, here’s the upshot:

* DeSantis COULD tie or narrowly beat Trump. But he has to close that deal this weekend.

* DeSantis COULD also finish behind Haley in Iowa. Think about THAT for a minute.

If either of these things happens, conventional wisdom about the way this nominating contest will unfold, at least in terms of the specifics, will be completely blown.

[There’s more, so be sure to read it all. Basically, Liz argues for the Yogi Berra approach: It ain’t over until it’s over. I don’t think I’ve ever seen polls miss by 30 points, but it’s going to be VERY cold in Iowa on Monday, and organization will matter more than ever. Adam and I will talk about it in the Monday morning episode of Amiable Skeptics, too. — Ed]