Look, maybe that much-touted door-knocking effort by Never Back Down will have some effect. But if it was building up support for DeSantis, don’t you think we would see at least some sign of growing DeSantis support in some recent poll? Actually, as bad as DeSantis’s numbers are, in most surveys he’s actually improving. In the Fox Business poll, DeSantis increased from 15 percent in September to 18 percent in December. In the Emerson poll, DeSantis increased from 14 percent in September to 15 percent in December. In CBS News’, DeSantis increased from 21 percent in September to 22 percent in December. In the Iowa State/Civiqs survey, DeSantis remained flat at 17 percent from October to December, and in the Des Moines Register poll, DeSantis increased from 16 percent to 19 percent. …

I see a lot to like in DeSantis. But that doesn’t mean I’m blind to his flaws or in denial about how much of an underdog he is right now, or how high the climb ahead of him is. You folks do know that just because I’m telling you something doesn’t mean I like it, right? Have you run into so many people who only report the narrative that they prefer that you’ve forgotten that human beings are capable of reporting what’s actually happening, whether or not it’s what they want to report?

[Jim’s right, and I’m the one who argued that early polls would miss the big organizing effort in Iowa. They still may be missing a turnout phenomenon, but one would expect to see some evidence of that in polling with less than three weeks to go to the caucuses. DeSantis could still pull off a surprise, but at the very least, we’re not seeing much direct evidence of it. And the indirect evidence, including the churn in DeSantis’ campaign and super-PAC leadership, suggests against the likelihood of success. — Ed]