U.S. holiday sales grew by 3.1% compared to the same time period last year, but it is still less than forecast and significantly below the growth in sales that occurred from 2021 to 2022, according to a report released Tuesday by Mastercard.

The annual report tracks sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24, without adjusting for inflation, and while December’s inflation numbers have not been released, inflation hit 3.1% in November 2023 compared to the same time last year. This means that at least for November, net sales may not have increased at all.

Mastercard had predicted in September that retail sales over the holiday season would grow by 3.7%. Last year’s holiday shopping report from Mastercard showed that sales increased 7.6% compared to 2021.

[Inflation takes a bigger bite out of the spending strength of American households. Real wages have eroded over the last two-plus years, so it’s not much of a surprise to see people temper their holiday spending plans. It’s interesting to note that online sales also fell short of expectations this year. — Ed]