Israel has offered a deal that includes the release of forty Israelis, including the remaining women and elderly civilians, in return for the release of Palestinian prisoners convicted of terrorism offenses, a two-week pause in the fighting and increased humanitarian aid. Although the terms are much more generous than those of the previous deal, Hamas has rejected the offer and refused to come up with a counter-offer. Hamas’s announcement earlier today that it rejects a deal was followed by the largest missile attack against Israel in weeks.
Hamas’s priorities are not to secure humanitarian aid. It is only interested in the release of prisoners because it increases the group’s popularity and shows it is a powerful organization capable of bending Israel’s arm. The group’s main aim is a ceasefire that will ease the enormous pressure inflicted on the terror organization by intense IDF operations.
For Hamas, the hostages are the best — and possibly only — bargaining chip for achieving a ceasefire. They want to take advantage of Israel’s eagerness to get the hostages back in order to make Netanyahu accept vast concessions.
[That’s clearly not going to happen, although it appears that the concession Sinwar wants most is his own life. The Israelis may need to kill Sinwar, Philpott argues, to get any rational negotiation with Hamas’ billionaire ex-pat leadership in Qatar. At this stage, though, Netanyahu may just believe it’s better to fight to the conclusion and let the Gazans take care of Sinwar. Be sure to read all of Philpott’s analysis, which emphasizes the pressures on Netanyahu as well. — Ed]
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