A recent poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College reveals that former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by two percentage points in a head-to-head matchup for the 2024 election. The survey discloses that Trump is supported by 46% of registered voters, while Biden is supported by 44%. On the other hand, likely voters favor Biden with 47% of the respondents indicating their support for him, compared to Trump’s 45%. A mere 8% of likely voters chose not to answer or remained undecided.

Notably, the poll also shows that among the voters who didn’t support either candidate as their first pick, 26% said they would choose Biden, and 24% would elect Trump if it came down to choosing between the two. However, half of the respondents declined to make a decision.

[This gets to a point I make more often in conversation than in writing. Most of the ground Biden has lost in recent polling has been from his own base, but those voters aren’t really leaving Biden, and they’re not crossing over to Trump. In a 2020 replay, the voters that Biden has ‘lost” in polling will come home in droves in a presidential election. We saw that in the 2022 midterms especially, as Democrats made Trump an effective bete noire for turnout purposes. — Ed]