But the hype behind Haley gives off more than a whiff of desperation. One poll in one state showing Haley only fifteen points behind hardly suggests that Trump has much to worry about. Trump is forging ahead among likely caucus-goers in Iowa, where Republicans will vote on January 15. Trump did not win in Iowa in 2016, and Ron DeSantis had hoped his social conservatism might give him an edge in the state. But his campaign seems to be dwindling into irrelevance as the New Year approaches. One of his key strategists, Jeff Roe, has just resigned.

DeSantis’s pitch was that he could be a more competent version of Trump. Haley’s appeal, by contrast, is that she is different — something more centrist and less divisive. She therefore appeals to the large number of voters suffering from Trump fatigue. And she now has the financial support and organizational strength of the Koch network, the biggest conservative donors in American politics, behind her.

[We saw this in the 2012 cycle and the 2016 cycle in the GOP primaries, and in the 2020 cycle for Democrats. The media focuses on the frontrunners and then sets up “surges” by using media polls with what turns out to be circular feedback loops to proclaim The Next New Thing. That gets boring for the rest of us. Right now it appears Trump is sailing to the nomination, but Iowa is all about organization and turnout to caucuses. Let’s see how Team Trump does there before anointing anyone yet. — Ed]