The article provides some evidence of a long-term gain in support for legal abortion. There may be less here than meets the eye though. The author obtains pre-2022 abortion-opinion data from the General Social Surveys (GSS) conducted by the NORC. However, the General Social Surveys are much longer and contain questions about a much wider range of topics than the recent WSJ/NORC polls. Research shows that survey responses to abortion questions are very sensitive to a range of factors, including preceding questions. As such, comparing data from the recent WSJ/NORC polls to data from older GSS polls may be misleading.
Overall, many media outlets have tried to make the case that there has been a substantial gain in public support for legal abortion since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision. However, the data do not necessarily bear that out.
[Interesting, but the small shifts in either direction in competing polls are not terribly compelling. Factor in the differing ways these questions get asked, the increasing resistance to polling participation, and the acute nature of this issue after Dobbs, and I’m not sure anything has changed significantly except turnout motivation … and that clearly hasn’t favored pro-life candidates in the elections since the decision. That too has a nuanced background, as part of the problem is that politicians have not yet fully adjusted to the fact that they now have to make policy, and not just chant slogans. Voters are very aware of that now. — Ed]
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