We have reached the point where this is a three-person race: DeSantis, Haley, and the absent Trump. I don’t expect the field to consolidate around the Floridian or South Carolinian before Iowans vote in five weeks, but at some point, before the Palmetto State primary, that will likely happen.

DeSantis seems relatively strong in the Hawkeye State, but the Iowa winner hasn’t been the GOP nominee in 16 years. There is no pathway for DeSantis after Iowa, whereas Haley has one. And if the former president refuses to talk to persuadable Americans, either candidate can take out Trump and be the nominee. Policies should matter, not performative outrage about the latest incendiary cable news clip.

[The only state where there is a reasonable chance for that to happen is also the first state in the process — Iowa. DeSantis has spent a fortune on a GOTV effort, and that can produce very surprising results. Whether it does this time … we’ll see. If DeSantis pulls out a win in Iowa, though, it will recast the dynamics of the primaries that immediately follow. — Ed]