Based on history, DeSantis and Haley are probably going to turn in at least a pretty good debate performance tonight. And yet, no matter how good either or both perform, there is not likely to be much change in the level of support. Maybe one or both go up a few points, maybe they go down a few points. There is no scenario in which we wake up tomorrow morning, or next week, and see either DeSantis or Haley into the 40 to 50 percent range.

In other words, both DeSantis and Haley need all the help they can get, even if it comes from each other. I suspect neither campaign thinks particularly highly of the other right now. But if you’re pulling for either, your preferred candidate doesn’t have the luxury of deciding they don’t want certain potential allies. A DeSantis fan scoffing at an alliance with Haley, or vice versa, isn’t all that different from Kari Lake snarling that McCain Republicans should “get the hell out” in the 2022 gubernatorial race. Your candidate doesn’t have enough support right now!

I can’t guarantee that a DeSantis–Haley ticket would overtake Trump. But I can guarantee that continuing the current approach — the same old remarks and speeches at the same old campaign stops in Iowa and New Hampshire and the same old comments in one more debate — and expecting different results is the definition of insanity.

[Well, maybe. A prior commitment will keep me away from the debate tonight, but don’t expect a sudden Twin Powers Activate moment. Besides, polling does mean something, but ground operations in Iowa mean more. DeSantis could shake up the succeeding primaries with a surprise win there. I don’t think either candidate should give up on their approach until voters actually get a chance to choose. That’s why we have elections rather than polls. — Ed]