Assuming Trump goes on to win, there will be a lot of theorizing about what rival candidates could have done differently. The DeSantis campaign will undergo the most scrutiny given that he started out the year relatively close to Trump — even leading in a few state-level polls — and well ahead of any other rivals. I have my own theories on why the DeSantis campaign has underperformed, but the reality is that I’m not sure he would have beaten Trump, even had he run a perfect campaign.

The simple reason why Trump has been so formidable is that he keeps getting indicted. It’s the most obvious point, but it’s hard to escape the reality that the one factor put the race out of reach for anybody else was the fact that Republican voters have rallied around Trump during his legal fights, and they are not ready to abandon him. This seems pretty clear from the data.

[We’ll see what happens when actual votes get cast and actual caucusing takes place. There’s no indication from the polling that Trump’s support is soft, but until then it’s also largely theoretical, especially on the basis Philip lays out here. Will voters stick with Trump all the way, or will they reconsider when they have to make an irrevocable choice? And if DeSantis manages to out-caucus Trump in Iowa, will that make this question even more acute in the states that follow? — Ed]