Israel Will Gain Nothing from a Cease-Fire

If Israel’s security interests weren’t relevant to those who have been calling for a cease-fire from the start, we can safely assume that Israeli interests won’t be a consideration when hostilities resume. And if the Israeli public has anything to say about it, hostilities will resume. But at that point, it will be Israel that is violating a preferred status quo.

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The Jewish state will be blamed for not deferring to the elementary logic of hostage-taking and extending the cease-fire indefinitely. Israel will be blamed for retaliating against trigger-happy terrorists, who can’t be expected to observe the terms of the cease-fire at all operational levels. It would be surprising if the protesters in the streets and their ideological compatriots in the corridors of power in the West even acknowledge the strategic sacrifice Israel is making by taking the pressure off Hamas. And if that basic fact of this war doesn’t register, the logic that will compel Israel to resume its effort to neutralize the threat of Hamas once and for all will surely elude them too.

[That’s what I argued this morning as well, but at least the Israelis will get some of the hostages back for minimal risk, if this is a one-off. They should get more diplomatic room to maneuver when hostilities resume too, but perhaps not as much as they hope or think. It seems more likely to set up expectations for more such cease-fire deals at Israel’s expense. — Ed]

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