Back in 2020, Biden won young voters — those between the ages of 18 and 29 — nationally by an almost two-to-one margin, 59 percent to 35 percent. While Biden won the national popular vote by roughly 7 million votes, what really matters is the Electoral College, where “just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie.” Throw in Biden’s 80,555-vote win in Pennsylvania, and we can calculate that Trump was about 124,000 votes away from winning a second term. …

If the turnout among young voters shrinks compared to 2020, or that demographic is more evenly split, Trump is likely to win those states in a rematch.

In the most recent Quinnipiac poll, Biden’s approval rating is actually evenly split among respondents aged 65 or older — 49 percent approve and 49 percent disapprove. But among those between the ages of 18 and 35, only 30 percent approve and 65 percent disapprove.

[There’s a caveat to this, which is that these young voters aren’t moving to the right. They’re moving to the *left*. To the extent that Democrats lose these voters, it may be to the Greens and Jill Stein, but not to Donald Trump or another Republican nominee. More importantly, in a Biden-Trump rematch, those young voters are much likelier to come home to the Democrats regardless of how they personally feel about Biden. — Ed]