An analysis of vote totals in the Virginia state legislative races is instructive. Republicans received more than 49 percent of the two-party vote share in both the Virginia state-senate races and the Virginia house races. Interestingly, in the 67 Virginia house races where both a Democrat and a Republican appeared on the ballot, Republicans actually captured a majority of the two-party vote share. …
[M]ultiple datapoints from Virginia show that Republican candidates performed relatively well in a state that President Biden carried by more than ten percentage points in 2020.
[I’d love to buy into this enthusiasm, but Kentucky makes me skeptical. Still, Michael and his friends have done deeper dives into the data than me, and Virginia *is* a blue state. — Ed]
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