President Joe Biden is betting on a strong economy to carry him to victory. Economic models show he has reason to worry.

Forecasters who have successfully predicted the outcome of past presidential races based on the economy say the 2024 election will be a tight race — even though employment is high, inflation is easing and Americans continue to spend.

That’s a cautionary signal to the White House on top of recent polls showing Biden is trailing badly behind former President Donald Trump on the economy — by 22 points in one survey. The results also cast doubt on the Biden campaign’s claim that the economy will be a significant asset on the campaign trail.

Yale economist Ray Fair is predicting a slight edge for Biden, seeing him getting 51 percent of the vote, in line with other economists like Moody’s Analytics’ Mark Zandi, who also forecasts a very close contest. They cite inflation — which is down considerably from its 2022 peak, but still the highest in over a decade — as a key stumbling block for Biden. And many experts say a likely slowdown in growth could cut into Biden’s vote.

[Man, they just keep trying to find that glimmer of hope to talk themselves into. ~ Beege]