The leftward drift of young and college-educated voters is another political challenge for Republicans and conservatives. If Republicans can’t succeed in the project of generational persuasion, they will face major political headwinds. Suburbanites are a key component of any governing coalition, so the GOP can’t afford to write off this demographic. The migration of politically engaged college-educated voters to the Democratic coalition may give Democrats an edge in some low-turnout elections, and Democrats have certainly overperformed expectations in many special elections this year. If it can’t improve its turnout strategies in off-cycle elections, the GOP may be at a structural disadvantage in the future.

On the other hand, the electorate’s increasing dissatisfactions with progressive identity politics could give the center-right a major political opening. For instance, Kristy Marmorato is poised to be the first Republican from the Bronx elected to the New York City Council in many years, and she emphasized the issue of crime. Making the most of that opportunity will require considerable political imagination and a much more compelling vision of cultural politics than “triggering the libs.”