The Chinese leader Xi Jinping welcomed delegations from across the developing world to Beijing today to celebrate his pet project, the Belt and Road Initiative. The forum, the third of its kind, is meant to display China’s influence in the global South and show that Washington’s efforts to isolate and pressure Beijing can’t succeed: China simply has too many friends.

But one very important person was absent. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government have steadfastly refused to join Xi’s infrastructure-building program and have promoted alternatives instead. Just last month, Modi and U.S. President Joe Biden announced a joint project to connect India to Europe through the Middle East by rail and ship.

Modi’s absence from the Belt and Road forum is a sign that the rivalry between the United States and China is not the only one shaping global affairs. Another, between India and China, may have geopolitical consequences that are equally important. At stake are the shape of the global South and its role in international governance. Whose vision prevails—Xi’s or Modi’s—will help determine the future of the world order and American global power.

[Both the Biden and Trump administrations have courted India for this very purpose. However, we have to be careful with India as well under Modi, which has pursued a Hindu nationalism that threatens the other religious minorities in their own country and those surrounding it. That could have explosive consequences, especially with Pakistan, but also internally in ways that could destabilize India. — Ed]