A number of factors seem to have caused a delay, but sources have told The Jerusalem Post that one factor has been a growing concern that Hezbollah is waiting for the moment that most IDF ground forces are committed to Gaza to open a full front with the IDF in the north.

In this narrative, the fact that Hezbollah did not engage at the start of the war Saturday morning and has kept its attacks on Israel at a fairly low threshold does not prove that it is deterred but is part of an elaborate fake-out to lure the IDF into a false sense of security, similar to what Hamas pulled off in the south.

As fodder for such suspicions, sources would note that Israeli intelligence and the political echelon must have a new level of humility about their assessments of enemy intentions after missing the boat regarding Hamas in the south.

[Fair point, but the scope of the mobilization clearly took that into consideration. If the Israelis don’t get baited into an invasion of southern Lebanon but instead limits its offensive to air power and stays on defense on the ground, they can likely handle anything Hezbollah can toss at them for a while. A ground invasion of Gaza is incredibly complicated too, perhaps so much that it’s taking longer to strategize properly. The IDF didn’t do so well the last time they tried it. — Ed]