Blanket school closures caused real, long-term harm

Missing a year of school leads to losing over two years of wages.

That is one startling conclusion from my new research looking at the long-term impact of school closures. We already know that the pandemic has hurt many students’ academic performance, but missing school can cause long-lasting economic damage. As a result, policymakers and school administrators should be very wary of blanket school closures in response to COVID-19, even as cases rise.

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While we might not know the true spread of COVID cases because of self-testing and underreporting, hospitalizations are up threefold from their nadir in June. We can only expect cases to continue to climb as the weather cools, people spend more time indoors, and children return to the classroom.

But that’s the problem – too many children aren’t returning to the classroom. The rise in chronic absenteeism since the pandemic is well documented, with every state seeing a rise over the last three years. And this rise is closely related to pandemic-era policies that shut schools to slow the spread; schools that closed for longer during the pandemic are seeing a greater rise in absenteeism, and those that opened up more quickly are experiencing lower rises now.

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