Elections aren’t just about a party’s political base. Proponents of a realignment argue that a more pro-worker economic message could help persuade swing voters and the disaffected to turn out for Republicans. The 15 percent of the public that Pew classifies as “stressed sideliners” is almost evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. With lower levels of formal education and lower incomes, this group is more socially conservative but also has many economic worries. An economic message that seems blind to working-class finances could cost Republicans with this swing constituency. Conversely, a cultural message that tilts too far to the left could endanger Democratic standing with these voters.

While most voters aren’t going to spend much time poring over white papers on economic policy, the electorate will reward or punish a political coalition based on economic outcomes. Combined with the fallout from the Iraq War, the 2008 economic meltdown caused even many Republican voters to turn on George W. Bush. The relatively robust economy prior to the pandemic has probably boosted the viability of Trump’s 2024 bid. Joe Biden entered office in January 2021 with comparatively strong approval ratings, but high inflation has tarnished his public appeal. Thus, any serious attempt to build or maintain a political majority will have to look at economic questions. Growth remains an important political end.

Additionally, economics intersects with culture.

[It’s theoretically possible to do both. After the events of this week, one wonders whether the GOP can do *either*, and whether voters will have any confidence in them to address their issues rather than spend their time infighting. Economics will almost always prevail, especially during harder times, because economics touches almost every voter in very personal and specific terms. The culture wars have a much smaller footprint. — Ed]