Tensions between Poland and Ukraine over Ukrainian grain exports have now reached fever pitch. Given that Poland has been one of Ukraine’s strongest allies since Russia launched its invasion last year, the dispute may initially seem hard to comprehend.

The immediate cause of the row is that there is now a glut of Ukrainian grain in central and eastern Europe. As the Black Sea is blockaded by Russia, grain that would have been shipped to Africa and the Middle East has instead ended up in the EU. This has destabilised agricultural markets in Poland, putting extraordinary downward pressure on local prices and causing outrage among Polish farmers.

Poland this week appeared to throw down the gauntlet, with prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki announcing that he would no longer send weapons to Ukraine. These widely reported remarks have been taken out of context somewhat. They actually reflect the status quo rather than a u-turn in policy. Poland has already sent so many weapons to Ukraine that it has very few left for its own army. During his speech, Morawiecki also reiterated his commitment to allowing Poland to be used as the main transport hub and repair centre for weapons destined for Ukraine. Polish president Andrzej Duda has since clarified that all existing weapons contracts will be honoured. Nevertheless, Morawiecki’s speech undoubtedly reveals that tensions are boiling over.