The Fed Isn’t Getting the Economy It Expected

When the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee sits down Tuesday and Wednesday, one thing it has to grapple with is that underlying inflation is looking cooler than it thought just a few months ago. Another: The economy is looking much stronger.

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The central bank’s policy makers will need to update the economic projections to reflect these changes. But an environment with a bit less inflation and more growth has interest-rate implications, too. While policy makers are almost certain to keep rates on hold, and might be comfortable leaving them on hold for the remainder of the year, rate cuts are likely to be even further from their minds now.

The last time the Fed released projections, at their June meeting, they showed that policy makers on balance thought that their preferred measure of consumer prices, from the Commerce Department, would be 3.2% higher in the fourth quarter this year from a year earlier. They forecast that core prices, which exclude food and energy items to better capture inflation’s underlying trend, would be up 3.9%.

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