The summer before an election year is not always kind to first-term Democrats.

In August of 1995 Bob Dole led Bill Clinton. In the summer of 2011, the public’s “grim views” of the economy, we said at the time, pushed Barack Obama’s disapproval to its then-highest point.

That both presidents recovered and went on to reelection may give Democrats hope, because right now Joe Biden and the Democratic Party face major challenges of their own.

And those Democrats won’t find any solace in this: today Mr. Biden is down one point, and inside the margin of error, in a match-up with Donald Trump, whom he beat by seven million votes three years ago.

With most voters unsure he’d stay through a second term if he did get one, and their concerns about whether Mr. Biden is healthy enough, it’s all adding uncertainty for an already unsettled public.