As winter approaches, so too do Europe’s energy woes, along with the question of whether the continent has learnt from last year’s crisis. Although the worst fears from last winter did not materialise, it was the second warmest on record. The upcoming months will reveal whether Europe’s energy strategy was a sound one or whether this outcome was pure luck.

This morning, it was reported that planned strikes in Australian liquefied natural gas (LNG) factories caused an 11% surge in European gas prices. Gas reserves in the European Union are at a record 93.5%, but, if events in Australia are any indicator, the continent’s supply rests on a knife-edge.

Australia supplies about 7% of the world’s LNG, and with Russia no longer Europe’s primary supplier any disturbance of global supply immediately causes concern in continental markets. This volatility also benefits Moscow, which is still a supplier of fossil fuels to the EU. Its LNG exports to Europe are up 40% according to a recent study, and Brussels has no plan to immediately stop this intake.

With Russian LNG exports rising by 40% since the war, Moscow is now the second most important LNG supplier with a share of around 20%, second only to the 40% share boasted by the US. Vladimir Putin might be a politically unreliable supplier, but moving LNG from American ports to Europe comes with its own risks.