First, these new abortion estimates are based on samples of abortion facilities, not comprehensive surveys. Guttmacher provides 90 percent confidence intervals that often reflect a great deal of potential variance in their state-level abortion estimates. For Georgia, their upper abortion estimate is over 80 percent higher than their low estimate. For Florida, their upper estimate is more than 11,000 abortions higher than their low estimate. This much variation raises serious questions about the accuracy of their estimates.

Additionally, not all of the abortion increases in politically liberal states are due to more out-of-state women seeking abortions. Part of the increase is likely due to a recent national trend. Between 2017 and 2020, data from both the CDC and Guttmacher found a slight increase in the incidence of abortion. Also, part of the increase can be attributed to some blue states’ having made their abortion policy even more permissive. In recent years Illinois, Maine, and Rhode Island have all started to cover elective abortion through their respective state Medicaid programs. Finally, part of the increase is likely due to CDC policies that have made chemical abortions easier to access — specifically, policies allowing women to obtain chemical-abortion pills without an in-person medical exam.

Overall, plenty of reliable data collected since the Dobbs decision show that thousands of lives have been saved by strong state-level pro-life laws.