The release of a characteristically thorough analysis by Nate Cohn in The New York Times provides abundant and persuasive evidence that this trend is real and shows no signs of going away. As Cohn notes, Biden leads Trump by a mere 53-28 percent margin among these voters in a merge of 2022-23 Times/Siena College polls. This is not only a sharp fall-off from Biden’s support in the 2020 election, but also from Biden’s and previous Democratic candidates’ support in analogous pre-election polls. …

Clearly there’s a very real and very large problem here. Democrats may simply have misjudged what is most important to nonwhite voters, reflecting perhaps the increasing domination of their coalition by white college graduate voters, virtually the only demographic among whom the party has been doing steadily better. The agenda of white college graduates, particularly the progressives who support the party so fervently and fuel the party’s activist base, is less coterminous with that of nonwhite voters than Democrats seem to believe.

[Perhaps the confusion of Democrats comes from their obsession with ethnic determinism and identity politics. Democrats aren’t losing “non-white voters” so much as losing working- and middle-class voters. The non-white voters in polls probably are overrepresented in those economic strata, which is why they show up as they do in polls. We can see that it some of the other data to, which Teixeira notes but doesn’t necessarily analyze thoroughly. These voters are overwhelmingly opposed to Dem agendas on the economy and on cultural issues like transgenderism. The real disconnect here is a category error by focusing on race rather than cultural identity. — Ed]