What happens if *unlikely* voters show up in a rematch?

According to the poll, Americans who are most skeptical of politics and politicians still prefer Trump over Biden. Registered voters who say they aren’t likely to go to the polls backed Trump over Biden by more than 2-1, or 32%-13%. Citizens who are eligible to vote, but have not registered, also favor Trump 28%-15%.

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According to the US Elections Project, 80 million US citizens eligible to vote in the 2020 presidential election did not cast ballots, despite a record-breaking number of votes cast overall. Some analysts speculate the total of non-voters could top 90 million Americans next year because of widespread voter dissatisfaction with candidates and the process. That’s more potential voters than Joe Biden received in the 2020 Presidential election.

“In a year of major political ironies, this is the irony of all ironies: that some turned-off Trump voters have grown so disgusted with the election process that they’ve soured on voting altogether,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “One might point out, ‘But these respondents are saying they aren’t voting next year, so who cares?’ My response: Unlikely voters represent a massive block of potential voters in the US.”

[Bear in mind that the rematch itself is one reason why a significant portion will sit it out, assuming it comes to pass. Twenty-eight percent say they’d vote if a candidate they liked got nominated instead. Still, this is pretty interesting, and somewhat counter-intuitive. — Ed]

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