Kamala’s bleak showing in the polls is particularly striking because she took office with enthusiastic support from every legacy media outlet. They loved her, even though ordinary Democratic voters did not. In fact, those voters were so sour on Kamala that she withdrew before the first primary or caucus in 2020. She was polling near zero. She could raise money, at least initially, but she couldn’t raise enthusiasm or votes. She still can’t. With each failure, she tries to reintroduce herself to the public. It hasn’t worked.

Unfortunately for Democrats, Kamala’s presence as second-in-line poses a thorny problem, whether Biden runs or not. If he runs, she’s an albatross on the ticket because voters are worried Biden might not make it through a full second term. They really, really don’t want to see Harris step into the Oval Office by default.

If Biden decides not to run, Harris poses a different problem. She is the country’s highest-ranking African-American officeholder in a party built around identity politics and strong turnouts by blacks, especially black women. That dependence on black votes is why Biden picked her in the first place (remember, he promised to pick a black woman), and it’s why he cannot drop her from the ticket. If Biden doesn’t run and Harris sinks to the bottom in an open primary, the result could alienate a vital constituency and depress turnout in that crucial group.

[These three paragraphs explain why Biden *can’t* back out, at least from Democrats’ perspective. If he retires, they’re stuck with Kamala. If the GOP wises up enough to nominate someone fresher against Biden, then she’ll lose and will have to start over again in an open cycle. But if Biden retires, Harris won’t have lost, and Democrats will have no way to explain passing over the “highest-ranking African-American officeholder” and a woman in favor of Newsom or Polis or Pritzker. They’ll go full Weekend At Bernie’s with Biden to prevent that from happening. — Ed]