Russia was using Wagner to great advantage in Africa, even more so than in the Middle East. I honestly expected to see them use them even more before striking. I think two things may have changed that calculus. First is Niger, where Wagner had extensive involvement. Did Pringles [Prigozhin — Ed] push some things against orders to curry favor and build back power? Interesting questions. There are, of course, rumors of that and other things that would have not sat well with Vladimir or other power players. Second is that Vladimir took some serious internal political hits during and after the coup. He very much needs propping up/shows of strength right now.
The whole “push some things” holds true in many regards to Kadyrov as well. Kadyrov moved troops against the “coup” both in occupied Ukraine and in Moscow. Keep in mind this so-called coup had silent backers in Moscow and beyond, and not just in one or more major players. More than ever I think it had silent partners in several key players and a number of oligarchs outside the regular power structure.
Keep in mind it doesn’t take much of a misspeak to make Vladimir suspicious of you, especially these days. Now, look back over the last year of what Kadyrov has said and compare it to Pringles (including his echoes of Kadyrov). Think it would take much to make an increasingly paranoid Vladimir see Kadyrov as a threat?
[Hmmmm indeed. The alliance between Putin and Kadyrov always seemed curious, given Putin’s brutal suppression of the Chechens, in both directions. If Putin really starts getting paranoid, things may fall apart quickly. It’s worth watching. — Ed]
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