The public now splits evenly on whether they believe Trump will be convicted of the crimes of which he is accused (42% will – 41% will not), a net 7-point shift from two weeks ago prior to Trump’s indictment in Fulton County, Georgia.

— Navigator Research (@NavigatorSurvey) August 25, 2023

[Take this with a few caveats. In the first place, it’s not clear how this poll was structured, and other than the sample data (1000 registered voters per “wave”), we don’t know the methodology or sample composition. If the poll leads off with the question “Do you think Donald Trump has committed a crime?”, people who support Trump are not likely to complete the survey either. I haven’t seen much from Navigator before either, so I can’t comment on their reliability. RCP’s pollster ratings don’t include Navigator, and the FiveThirtyEight grade for Navigator and its parent Global Strategy Group (GSG) is B/C, not an auspicious result. GSG is also “a well-known Democratic consulting firm” (NYT, 2010) that is most closely associated with Eliot Spitzer and Andrew Cuomo. — Ed]