Back in the United States, there is a live debate primarily within the Republican Party about the value of continued material support for Ukraine’s sovereignty. Support for that project among GOP voters is volatile; it is heavily dependent on question-wording in polling on the issue and the facts on the ground in Ukraine. There is, however, an observable link between Ukraine’s battlefield victories and the number of Americans willing to provide support for its continued independence.

To judge by the Biden White House’s leaks, the Democratic administration is just as wary of aligning itself too closely with a cause that looked like it was producing diminishing returns. A Ukrainian breakthrough is likely to have a measurable effect on both how Republican voters view this project and the Biden White House’s eagerness to see the mission through. At the very least, undeniable Ukrainian momentum would impose some caution on American observers who too eagerly declared Ukraine’s war of self-preservation unwinnable. That is, assuming Ukraine’s reflexive detractors are capable of caution.

[What’s the alternative, anyway? Are Ukrainians supposed to just allow Russia to conquer them so as not to bother the US? Nikki Haley had a very good argument as to why supporting Ukraine not only forces Russia to expend its military resources to the point of exhaustion, but also keeps China from assuming we’ll shrug at Taiwan too. Plus, the idea that we will not come to the aid of a free country threatened by Russian imperialist conquest — especially one to whom we promised protection for their territorial sovereignty, for good or ill — should be a non-starter.

As for the “cusp of a breakout,” I wouldn’t set my watch to that just yet. Ukraine has made incremental gains and are close to seizing strategic positions, but that’s not the same thing as actually achieving those objectives. — Ed]