As Biden prepares to ask voters for four more years in office, a spate of new polls indicates the problem may have intensified. Biden’s 2020 margin among Black voters was smaller than for any other Democratic presidential nominee over the past two decades, and the latest data suggests that support has eroded since the election.

“The red flag is Black voters,” said Quentin James, who controls The Collective super PAC dedicated to electing Black Democrats. “It’s not time to panic. But it’s time to get to work.”

A Quinnipiac University national poll released last week found Biden receiving 73% support from Black voters, compared to 20% for Trump in a hypothetical 2024 rematch. A poll conducted for Fox News released this month showed 61% of Black voters favoring Biden, compared to 20% for Trump. August surveys from Emerson College, Harris X/The Messenger, and YouGov/The Economist also showed similar results.

[It’s worth watching, but count me skeptical on this until we see similar results in polling a year from now. This is even less connected to real candidate choices than the GOP primary polling is for now. It certainly expresses a higher level of unhappiness than Democrats can sustain in their most loyal demo, but for now that’s all it may be — a venting of dissatisfaction. The biggest and most realistic risk for Dems isn’t that Trump or another Republican will get 20% of the black vote, but that the turnout in this demo will fall off badly enough due to a lack of enthusiasm that it will put the whole ballot at risk. — Ed]