The third is the most dangerous for Putin. Prigozhin was not alone in his June 2023 rebellion. Hundreds of battle-hardened Wagner veterans may feel they have no choice but to go to ground and avenge their late leader against the man who almost certainly ordered his death. If Russians worried about Ukrainian drones striking Crimea, Moscow, or other Russian cities, they may have just unleashed the Kraken. Putin may be out of reach as he hides behind the thick walls of his billion dollar-palaces, but not every Russian official is so lucky.

Imagine battle-hardened veterans hunting down policemen, mayors, deputies, and ministers throughout the country. Should Wagner go this route, it will slowly erode the foundation of Russia’s stability and bring a taste of civil war-era Lebanon to the country. Certainly, if Putin cronies begin to drop like flies, the image of invincibility surrounding the Russian leader will fade. The strong horse could become a hobbled pony.

[Rubin offers three options, and this is the least likely. It took a couple of months for Putin to make an example of Prigozhin, but now the example has been set and in a spectacular way. Wagnerians will likely realize they’re even more disposable than their former boss. I’d bet on Option One, because that’s where the economic incentives are too — Wagner without Prigozhin. — Ed]