It is somehow both early and late in a Republican primary campaign of maximum consequence, the race that will determine whether next year’s election turns into the sequel that few Americans claim to want: Biden vs. Trump, once again. Too early, rival campaigns and many voters say, for people to start paying attention and making up their minds about a primary season half a year away. And yet it already feels too late for anyone to lay a finger on Trump, whose lead in polls stands at 30 or 40 points. …

Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses on Jan. 15 loom as the best chance to change the race’s frozen trajectory. The state has a history of elevating long-shot, close-touch candidates, particularly those who win the hearts of religious conservatives. Many of these voters have continuing qualms about Trump, whose lead over DeSantis is slightly smaller here than it is nationally. In polls, some 70% of potential caucusgoers say they are open to a non-Trump candidate.

[Iowa is uniquely positioned for that potential. As a caucus state, organization matters most, and Trump isn’t organizing well, or at least not yet. DeSantis has poured resources into the state to pull off a surprise that might launch him into the front-runner position in the primary states that follow. Unless other candidates build a robust GOTV effort, they may not be able to take advantage of the opening. — Ed]