One reason is advances in weaponry. The latest generation of drones and missiles capable of destroying aircraft, ships and tanks favors the defense. This makes invasion of Taiwan more risky for China. Moreover, Russia’s weapons seem to be generally less effective than those of its NATO counterparts – and China’s arsenal relies heavily on Russian designs.

Also, the Ukraine war has unified European allies behind US leadership. In 2019, French President Emanuel Macron was talking about NATO being “brain dead.” After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the alliance stepped up defense spending and both Sweden and Finland applied for membership. Finland officially joined NATO in April 2023 while Sweden awaits final ratification.

The European Union was previously reluctant to join the US trade war with China. However, China’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made Brussels more willing to join the US in pushing back against China’s efforts to dominate key sectors of global trade.

[From our perspective, this is the rational way to look at how badly this has worked for Russia, especially the expansion of NATO to Finland and Sweden. Is that China’s perspective? One certainly hopes so, and perhaps their other problems in population collapse and economic stagnation will push them in this direction too. But we’d better prepare for the alternative in case Xi Jinping sees it differently. — Ed]