Ukraine is tired of cowing to Russian maritime threats. The Hong Kong-flagged Joseph Schulte container ship left the port of Odesa, Ukraine, for Istanbul on Wednesday despite threats from Moscow to treat any vessels leaving the Black Sea as military targets. Vows to safeguard civilian shipping in the region ended on July 17, when Russia refused to renew its Black Sea Grain Initiative with Ukraine.

It is unclear whether Moscow will allow the Joseph Schulte to traverse the sea unharmed or risk intensifying the war. “If Russia began attacking vessels carrying Ukrainian grain, it could mark a sharp escalation in the conflict,” FP’s Christina Lu and Amy Mackinnon wrote last month. “But even if Moscow does not immediately act on its threats, just the fear of an attack, or the presence of the embargo, is stirring enough uncertainty to spook insurers and international grain markets.”

[I’m not sure why Ukraine thinks Russia would balk at sinking shipping, given all of Moscow’s brutal actions during this attempted conquest. One has to wonder whether Ukraine might be baiting Russia’s Black Sea fleet into a trap of some kind; their navy has offered a few surprises, but do they have the kind of capability to sink Russia’s ship in open water rather than near port? — Ed]