While China’s fertility rate is not nearly as low as South Korea’s — which stands at 0.78 — China is already on the dark side of the population mountain, losing absolute population years ahead of schedule. There are all sorts of untold implications of this. As China’s population rapidly ages, overall Chinese wage costs will continue to go up. This may drive more manufacturing and investment to Vietnam or perhaps other nations. The aging population will begin to weigh on the mind of China’s geostrategic calculations. The window of opportunity that China saw opening in the future may already feel like it is starting to slam shut. China is becoming old before it became fully rich. Japan ranks 38th in GDP per capita. China is ranked at 72, grouped with countries such as Mexico (which has good prospects) and Belarus and Bosnia and Herzegovina (which do not).
[China set these incentives and then brutally enforced them in their one-child policies, driven by Malthusianism in the CCP. Not only is their population about to age out, the burden of that will fall on the much smaller generations following up, which will have to spend its productivity caring for their elderly parents and other relatives. In a healthy fertility environment, there would be more younger people to shoulder the burden and make it less impactful. — Ed]
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