Europe got through last winter avoiding energy shortages and the sharp decline in natural gas prices over the past six months has provided a welcome reprieve for consumers. But the continent’s energy crisis is far from over, Didier Holleaux, president of the Eurogas association and vice-president of France’s Engie, tells NGW, warning that risks will remain over the next four winters and authorities must avoid complacency.

The front-month gas contract at the Dutch TTF hub is currently trading at €20-30/MWh. This is a far cry from the peak of €340/MWh that was seen in August 2022, following a drastic cut in Russian pipeline gas supply over the summer. EU authorities have taken steps to bring down gas prices over the past year, although Holleaux believes the 2022 prices and an unusually mild winter, rather than policy, are largely to thank for relatively low prices now. And he also stresses that current prices are still significantly higher than what was considered normal in the years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The main factor in rebalancing the market in Europe has been very high prices,” he tells NGW. “That attracted all available LNG globally, but also significantly reduced industrial demand. And then there was the mild winter.”