When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the cancellation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 17, our first thought was of Peter the Great. Peter is one of Putin’s heroes and also the founder of Russia’s navy. What would Peter the Great think of Putin’s latest adventure?

As oligarch researchers, our second thought was about the opportunities that Putin might generate for himself and Russia by exiting the grain deal. Putin is an oligarch, and oligarchs are opportunists. We have argued in previous writings that Putin’s improvised invasion of Ukraine, which some observers see as evidence of Russian military incompetence, may also generate new opportunities for Putin to gain new wealth and power. We want to look beyond the obvious impact of the deal cancellation on Ukraine’s ability to generate foreign exchange to other, more subtle opportunities the cancellation might provide.

The first and most obvious opportunity for Putin is financial. Grain futures prices increased by over 11% since July 17 before falling back somewhat, due to the disrupted and potentially reduced supply from Ukraine. Since the deal cancellation, Russia has also attacked grain storage facilities in Ukraine, further contributing to price increases. Putin is likely to have been one of the few people to know about his intention to exit the deal. So going long on grain would be an easy way to generate a lot of financial gains quickly, particularly if this speculation used wheat futures and options. Those gains could be for Putin’s personal benefit, for the benefit of the Russian state or both. And they don’t depend on Russia’s own ability to export grain, which now may have been impacted in the Black Sea by Ukraine in retaliation.