At stake is not just the once-in-a-generation chance to be San Francisco’s sole representative in Congress — a post Pelosi has held since 1987. Her retirement, and the jockeying it would set off in state and local politics, would likely create open races for state Senate, Assembly and the San Francisco Board of Supervisors.

Pelosi has been mum about her plans, and the evidence that has emerged so far is contradictory. The congresswoman has raised $3.5 million in the first six months of the year between her campaign and political action committees, a haul that suggests she could run for reelection in November 2024 if she wanted. At a minimum, it shows she still has clout, which could be one reason she has decided to leave people guessing.

[Clearly she’s not contemplating retirement from politics, not if she’s raising that much money. Pelosi will have to choose soon whether to run for another House term, or else Democrats may not be able to run an effective candidate in her absence. Dustin Gardiner writes that the process begins next month, but the hard deadline is in December. Pelosi could also choose to just play fundraising kingmaker for a while too, but then why stick around for the full term in this session of Congress? Speakers who willingly give up the gavel to their own party usually retire, sooner rather than later. — Ed]