Whatever happens to Mr Prigozhin, his mutiny has revealed the erosion of the state and the flimsiness of Mr Putin’s support base. His dictatorship has so far relied less on mass purges than a consensus between power groups. His political opponents have ended up in jail (like Mr Navalny) or exile. Meanwhile he has sowed rivalries between his loyalists, making himself their arbiter. To forestall a palace coup he prevented consolidation in the army and security services and created parallel structures such as Wagner. ….

The mutiny also showed that Telegram, and Mr Prigozhin’s network of trolls and bloggers on it, have eroded the Kremlin’s monopoly over information, particularly among young people. While television propagandists awaited instructions from the Kremlin, the mutiny unfolded online. Less than a quarter of young Russians trust tv. Mr Putin staged a parade of uniformed men in the Kremlin, praising them merely for not joining the mutiny, and flew to Dagestan, a Muslim region in the Caucasus, for a show of adoration from his subjects there.

[Multiple sources have reported that purges in the Ministry of Defense have taken place, although still somewhat sotto voce and only aimed at Prigozhin’s potential allies. That includes command level officers on the lines in Ukraine, which not only shows Putin’s fear but likely will even further degrade readiness and morale. — Ed]