I still say Biden won’t be the Democratic nominee next year. And I think there’s a 50/50 chance that if Biden doesn’t drop out of his own volition, Gavin Newsom will decide some time this fall to jump in the race, with a “more in sorrow than anger” announcement that praises Biden for his good deeds, but that it’s time for a generational shift. Don’t think Newsom and his advisers aren’t weighing this possibility.

P.S. Here’s a fanciful scenario: maybe Biden resigns from office some time late this year or early next year—he’s only one tumble down the steps of Air Force One from being forced to step down—he could dangle the prospect of Kamala being the first woman president (by succession) for a few months provided she agrees to give way to a Democrat who might actually win.

[There is no way that Harris won’t get the nomination if Biden steps aside. Pushing the first black female VP aside for a white guy will get Democrats a raging internecine fight in the primaries, and perhaps a convention akin to 1968 without the riots outside. The only way to get Harris out of the way is to wait for the next open convention and force her to compete on her own for the nomination … which she’d fumble, of course, but at least no one could be accused of torpedoing her. — Ed]