Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, and the unemployment rate
changed little at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued
to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction. …
Both the unemployment rate, at 3.6 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.0 million,
changed little in June. The unemployment rate has ranged from 3.4 percent to 3.7 percent since March
2022. …
In June, the labor force participation rate was 62.6 percent for the fourth consecutive month, and the
employment-population ratio, at 60.3 percent, was unchanged over the month. …
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 77,000, from +294,000
to +217,000, and the change for May was revised down by 33,000, from +339,000 to +306,000. With
these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 110,000 lower than previously reported.
(Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies
since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
[A few points, and then a couple of interesting observations from econ analysts I follow. First off, almost 30% of this job growth came from government hiring, which has been ramping up considerably over the last three months. That seems as interesting as it is unsustainable. Private education and health services had the biggest gain, but government was not far behind. The revisions from the previous two months seem rather drastic too, and it makes the jobs market look less robust than before. However, wage growth finally got ahead of inflation after over two years of workers losing ground, and 209K is not a bad maintenance number for the US economy. This is no signal of a recession, at least not yet. — Ed]
Key takeaways from the jobs report:
1. Job growth is solid, but slowing
2. Gov't jobs made up ~30% of June job gains
3. Wage growth is above inflation: 4.4% y/y wage growth (vs. 4% inflation)
4. Black unemployment rate back up to 6%
5. This likely wasn't enough to stop Fed hike pic.twitter.com/vE47Qemg1i— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) July 7, 2023
Hey, remember the "she-cession," and those fears that it would set working women back a generation?
Prime-working-age women (25-54 years) just hit yet another month of record-high labor force participation… pic.twitter.com/1qL3D03Atq
— Catherine Rampell (@crampell) July 7, 2023
"No one wants to work anymore" update: 80.9% of Americans ages 25-54 were employed in June. That's the highest since April 2001.
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) July 7, 2023
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