Putin’s disastrous decision to invade Ukraine has come full circle and set off an unstable power dynamic within Russia. Prigozhin’s quick alleged takeover of two major Russian cities and his warriors’ march on Moscow against virtually no resistance have shown that anything is possible, including Putin’s downfall and civil war.
When it comes to Russia, therefore, nothing can be ruled out. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, many analysts have warned that policymakers should prepare for post-Putin postwar scenarios for Russia, including civil strife and the country’s disintegration. But it probably took Prigozhin’s march on Moscow for Western policymakers to start thinking seriously about how to prepare for what might come next.
[I made this same argument in my weekly commentary for Townhall and Salem Radio News. The center is no longer holding in Moscow, and chaos is almost inevitable again there for the first time in more than 30 years. The US probably can’t influence its outcome, and maybe shouldn’t try, but we’d better be prepared for the chaos and any of the foreseeable outcomes from it. The current leadership couldn’t foresee a Taliban takeover from a full-out US retreat from Kabul, so my confidence level is low at the moment that this is being properly game-planned. — Ed]
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