Maybe it is as it seems on the surface, and things are chaotic in Russia, and there is a lot of friction between the Wagner Group and the Russian military, though I’d be surprised if Putin is completely ignorant of Machiavelli’s teaching on the defects of relying on mercenary arms. There’s also speculation that Prigozhin might have made off with a nuclear weapon or two from one of military sites his forces briefly overran. Otherwise he better have a food taster and avoid tall buildings in his “exile” in Belarus.

In the meantime, be highly skeptical of every “news” or “analysis” story you read in the media. No one knows anything.

[I’m not sure about “anything,” but it’s a good reminder to stay humble as more facts emerge — IF they emerge. I’d quibble about another point John makes here, which is that Putin clearly didn’t heed Machiavelli’s warning about mercenary arms, even if he was cognizant of them. We’ve known that much for years, as Prigozhin’s Wagner group has been entangled in Russian military-strategic operations not just in Ukraine but also in Africa (Mali especially) and Syria. Donald Trump’s strike on Russian forces in Syria targeted Wagner mercenary forces and killed a number of them, for example. That may well turn out to be a fatal error in the long run for Putin, who may have thought he needed a counterweight to military command for political purposes and nearly got ousted by his own machinations. — Ed]