Nevertheless, Putin has seen off Prigozhin. And, as things stand, he remains the only force in Russian society capable of holding the state together. More importantly, the internal weakness of Russia does not make it any less dangerous to its neighbours. Indeed, Eastern Europeans, especially Ukrainians, have long identified the weakness of Russia as the driving force behind its external aggression.
The danger now is that Putin doubles down on his external foes in order to compensate for his weakness at home. Theories that a Prigozhin-led coup might have ended the war always seemed fanciful. So too is the idea that a weak, humiliated Putin might soon want to call off the war and make concessions to Ukraine.
Prigozhin’s rebellion has certainly exposed the rot inside Russia. But there is still no force significant enough to challenge Putin’s leadership. We should expect more of the same from Russia in the coming months – inward decay matched with outward aggression.
[True, but it’s also true that a more muscular Ukraine just became a bigger threat to a weakened Russia. It probably didn’t escape the attention of war planners in Kyiv how easily Prigozhin was able to seize Rostov and cut off nearly the entire Russian army outside its borders. It would be very difficult for Ukraine to do that, given the lines of communication necessary, but it’s now a risk that the Russians have to consider. Even apart from that, the revolt has given Kyiv a morale boost along with the new initiative being taken by Ukraine. — Ed]
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