Secondly, it does not reflect well on the authority of any national leader to admit that military facilities key to the conduct of a war – in this case, the headquarters and airfield in Rostov-on-Don, seized by Prigozhin on Saturday – are out of central control. This is doubly damaging for Putin, a leader whose chief claim to popular support since he came to power is the restoration of stability after the chaos and collapse of the 1990s.

Thirdly, Prigozhin, a founder, financier and leader of the 25,000-strong Wagner, was not putting himself forward as an alternative leader of Russia. He was challenging Russia’s defence establishment and its conduct of the war in Ukraine. This might have escalated into a challenge to Putin, but that is not how his revolt started. …

All of the above should knock several speculative theories on the head. The idea that Putin and the Kremlin staged the whole thing to provide elegant cover for the dissolution of Wagner, or as a feint to conceal vast new Russian troop movements towards the Ukrainian front, is implausible.

[This was a humiliation for Putin no matter how it turned out. The fact that Prigozhin could get halfway to Moscow without any effective opposition has highlighted a severe flaw in Russia’s internal security, and anyone with ambitions to push Putin aside and seize power will have seen it. The only way to plug that hole is to pull the Russian army back into Russia, or at least a significant part of it — and that would effectively end Putin’s imperial conquest in Ukraine. — Ed]