I knew last night it was going to be interesting when I heard from multiple sources that FORTRESS had been activated in Moscow and loyal troops (or at least troops with loyalty that could be assured by various means) were being sent to secure key facilities. Lots of RUMINT flying around along with some interesting reports.

This morning sees a so-far successful march towards Moscow that I’m having a hard time believing happened on the fly. All the Wagner ops so far show prior planning and preparation. Rather than a coup, this comes across as a revolution and yes there is a difference.

The Russian governmental response so far evokes the term-of-art “clusterfuck.” They appear to have been caught flat-footed and without a clue on how to respond. Attacks on the Moscow column appear to be piecemeal and uncoordinated. The only active opposition in Rostov is coming from Kadyrov’s Chechen troops (apparently). Attacking fuel depots is an interesting choice that will have little immediate impact in this case.